WHITHER WORLD WAR III?

I thought of this word, “whither,” in connection with the events taking place in today’s world and then stopped.   I felt uncertain.  Self-doubt.  Googled its definition just to be sure.   Yes.  That’s the right word: meaning “to which place or state” we are headed.

I feel uncertain that we are headed into World War III.   I have a lot of self-doubt.   Always have.   But I just may be right that we are, if I can put it more bluntly, already in this War to transcend all previous wars.  

You may know my background.   I’m a Social Worker; do psychotherapy for a living.   A Theologian; did pastoral ministry for a living.   Did a History & Political Science double major back in the mid-60’s as an undergrad, but no one has ever paid me a dime for what I know about such.  Not even the nickel Lucy of cartoon-fame gets for her Psychiatric services.   

I guess you could call that something of a disclaimer here.    You will owe me not a cent for this answer to my own question of “whither?” WW III.

I do stay a bit current on some of the more prominent historians and political scientists out there.  The Heather Cox Richardsons, the Anne Applebaums, the Steve Levitskys, the Dan Ziblatts.   The one book that hit me right behind the eyes a couple years back was Applebaum’s Autocracy, Inc.    Really made me think.   Her thesis was that something new is shaping our world politically that has placed us on an inevitable collision course.    By history, European wars offered nothing new to see here until WW I when America crossed the ocean to take sides in dramatic fashion, after which the continent became divided between the forces of democracy and those of autocracy.   However, there were two forms of autocracy that came into play and grew stronger after WW I.  Fascist autocracy was largely fashioned by private oligarchs competing for their own new fortunes.  Communist autocracy was, by contrast, fashioned by public “State oligarchs,” if you will, competing for public power against the private oligarchs for increasingly scarce commodities during the Great Depression era.    

Applebaum noted how it was that the western democracies then allied themselves with eastern communists in the fight against these private Fascist oligarchs notably in Germany and Italy.   Something about the enemy of your enemy becoming your friend.  Mattered not that Russian autocrats were killing German autocrats.   They were ideologically opposed.   Public oligarchs/autocrats held their nose and fought in alliance with public/private democracies to the west.   And vice versa.

That was then.  

Now things have shifted dramatically.   The autocrats are still in competition, private vs. public…..if you will.   Fascists vs. Communists.   Both have their oligarchs to please and provide for.   Much global wealth is at stake.  And the greatest threat in competition for that wealth is coming from, as you might guess, the western democracies as headed by the United States.   Even on the European continent, the European Union of democratic states had a GDP something like 10 times larger than autocratic Russia’s.  Russia’s new private oligarchs were not pleased; nor was their autocratic power-broker, Vladimir Putin.  

Applebaum’s thesis in her book and beyond involves an alliance of global autocrats in areas of trade, militarization, and propaganda against global democracies.   World War III being fought but never declared.  And so in 2014 the first major military action was initiated by Russia in its conquest of Crimea, as part of democratic Ukraine.   Minor Russian military actions were more internally drawn and used to prevent democracies being formed prior to 2014.   But Crimea was already democratic.   And increasingly prosperous.   Of all the greater autocracies in the world, none were equipped as well as Russia to initiate military battle against democracies.  However, all autocrats were obliged to ante up and provide economic cover and such for their larger alliance aimed at winning against their common enemy: democracy.   Remember: trade (economics), militarization, propaganda.  Inc.      

Notice the paradigm shift here.   Oh, the enemy of my enemy is still my friend.   But where in World War II Fascism was the enemy but democracies befriended Communist autocrats to defeat Fascism, now in World War III Democracy is the enemy and Fascists and Communists (throw in the Theocrats in Iran, etc.) have become friends.   Incorporated friends.  

Applebaum’s theory may not be original, but in my mind something finally became obvious upon reading her book.   She had carefully documented the working of global autocrats over a period of years to plan the destruction of democracy, their common enemy.   The United States was the crown jewel of their enemy.   Russia, China, Iran, all have studied their enemy to explore weak spots.   Any vulnerability that could be found could be exploited.  Militarily.  Economically.  Informationally using strategic propaganda.   We were democratic enemy #1.    Crimea and Ukraine would serve as a military front.   Far ahead of Taiwan in the Pacific.  But we in the USA were the kingpin.  Knock us out and the enemy against Autocracy, Inc. could cave.                

Now we’re past Applebaum’s theory as even she is reticent to use terms such as World War III.   She acknowledges the forces now operating globally, and the need for democratic states to create their own counter-alliances.   But something dramatic happened after her Autocracy, Inc. book hit the shelves in 2024.   The United States had an election and shifted from leadership of a global coalition of democracies under the Biden/Harris administration to our becoming a rogue player under the Trump/Vance administration starkly opposing both sides in this global conflict.  Not quite a knock out by the autocrats, but a critical knock down……and still on the canvas as I write.  

So whither World War III?   I’ll ask it again and throw out my most uncertain of opinions here.   Whither or where is the world headed now that the US has left the global democracies to scramble for the vacant position of leadership? I’m not sure Applebaum herself would not have us believe that the United States, if becoming enemy to both the democrats and the autocrats of this world, will not have the same uniting effect Germany had during World War II.  That is, democrats and autocrats may become friends long enough to take our USA out as their common enemy.   After which the world’s autocrats would have scored a definite knock out victory over the democrats in what I am calling World War III.

I hope I’m very wrong to even imagine such a dystopian future.    I want to be wrong!    Badly wrong!   But I won’t know that I am for sure until something happens Google cannot validate by any sort of definition.  I’ll know I’m wrong if the Democrats can gain enough power here in the United States within the next three years to return our nation to what by then will undoubtedly be a European-led coalition or alliance of democracies still in position for victory in WW III.  We'd be going back like the school drop-out who decides to return so he can at least play sports again, but at least we'd be back in class and able to still graduate. 

Which then brings up this next obvious (to me) uncertainty.  

Wither the USA?